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Predictive, Concurrent, Prospective and Retrospective Validity of Self-reported Delinquency

NCJ Number
204404
Journal
Criminal Behaviour and Mental Health Volume: 13 Issue: 3 Dated: 2003 Pages: 179-197
Author(s)
Darrick Jolliffe; David P. Farrington; J. David Hawkins; Richard E. Catalano; Karl G. Hill; Rick Kosterman
Date Published
2003
Length
19 pages
Annotation
This study assessed the validity of self-reported offending and its variation according to types of offenses, sex, and race.
Abstract
Data for the study were obtained from the Seattle Social Development Project, a prospective longitudinal survey of 808 children drawn from the population of 1,053 fifth-grade students who were attending 18 elementary schools in high-crime neighborhoods of Seattle in the fall of 1985. Information was collected from multiple sources, including the youths, their parents, teachers, school records, and King County court records. School survey data were collected in the fall of 1985 and then again in the spring of 1993. Self-report information was obtained annually from age 11 to age 17 for eight types of offenses: burglary, vehicle theft, larceny, robbery, assault, vandalism, marijuana use, and drug selling. The study found that self-reported offending had concurrent and predictive validity in relation to court referrals. Predictive validity was highest for drug offenses and burglary, but was not significant for vehicle theft or robbery. Predictive validity was higher for males than for females and highest for Whites and lowest for Asians. The self-reports of Asian and Black females had the lowest predictive validity. Black males had the highest concurrent and predictive validity in self-reports, although Black females were low. The probability of those who had been referred to court self-reporting a corresponding offense was high (93 percent). It was highest for marijuana use, assault, and burglary and lowest for robbery and vehicle theft. 8 tables, 3 notes, and 28 references