U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government, Department of Justice.

NCJRS Virtual Library

The Virtual Library houses over 235,000 criminal justice resources, including all known OJP works.
Click here to search the NCJRS Virtual Library

Estimating Prevalence: Indirect Methods for Estimating the Size of the Drug Problem

NCJ Number
204415
Date Published
July 2003
Length
98 pages
Annotation
Prepared as part of the work of the United Nations Global Assessment Program on Drug Abuse (GAP), this "epidemiological toolkit" is designed to assist state members of the United Nations in developing culturally appropriate systems for collecting drug information; in supporting existing drug information systems by promoting their compliance with internationally recognized standards of good practice; and in focusing on the harmonization of drug abuse indicators.
Abstract
The toolkit is a practical and accessible guide for implementing data collection in core areas. The modules are designed to be the basic guide for the development of specific activities. The principles of data collection presented are the product of a consensus among an international panel of experts and have been endorsed by state members of the United Nations. Although based on working models that have proven their effectiveness, the user is guided through the process of adapting the general principles and models to specific contexts. The focus of prevalence estimation is to determine how many members of the population of a country are using drugs and whether this number is changing. Obtaining this data is useful in assessing the likely impact of drug abuse on society and the level of response required. The indirect estimation methods presented in this toolkit are most appropriate for estimating the number of chronic or problematic drug abusers such as street heroin addicts or drug injectors. This is because the estimation methods described often rely on data from organizations that customarily have contact with drug users who manifest drug-related problem behaviors serious enough to warrant police and/or treatment intervention or cause the death of the drug user. A chapter on drug-use prevalence assessment considers the importance of assessing harm, the role of general population surveys, other epidemiological methods, indirect methods of prevalence estimation, and national and local prevalence studies. A chapter on specific methods of prevalence estimation focuses on the use of multiplier-benchmark methods, capture-recapture methods, advanced modeling techniques, extrapolation from local to national prevalence estimates, and the accuracy of estimates of prevalence levels. The concluding chapter presents general and technical guidelines for producing research-based estimates. 12 tables, 11 case studies of prevalence estimates, and an appended list of general resources for prevalence studies