U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government, Department of Justice.

NCJRS Virtual Library

The Virtual Library houses over 235,000 criminal justice resources, including all known OJP works.
Click here to search the NCJRS Virtual Library

Measuring Incidence, Prevalence and Concentration: Implications for Policing

NCJ Number
205633
Journal
Crime Prevention and Community Safety: An International Journal Volume: 6 Issue: 2 Dated: 2004 Pages: 51-59
Author(s)
Neelam Sunder; Daniel J. Birks
Editor(s)
Rob Mawby
Date Published
2004
Length
9 pages
Annotation
This paper examines the alternative crime counts of incidence, prevalence, and concentration and their deployment implications using data from the Sandwell area of the West Midlands.
Abstract
Core to the allocation of crime reduction resources is knowing that crime is distributed unevenly. Using data from the Sandwell area of the West Midlands, this paper attempts to establish that limited crime reduction resources can be better targeted by considering measures of incidence, prevalence, and concentration. These three types of crime counts are distinctive: (1) incidence is the number of victimizations per unit available for victimization; (2) prevalence is the number of victims per unit available for victimization; and (3) concentration is the number of victimizations per victimized unit. This paper distinguishes between these alternative crime counts and elaborates on their deployment implications. In this paper, domestic burglary comprised the data. The concentration measure was significant for this offense because areas with similar burglary rates may require very different crime prevention strategies according to the extent to which concentration contributes to the problem. Recorded crime data from January 1998 to January 2003 were retrieved from the West Midlands police crime database. In total, the dataset contained 19,126 records of domestic burglary, either attempted or completed. The results demonstrated that the levels of prevalence and concentration varied between areas with similar incidence. Thus, the balance of crime prevention strategies must be adjusted accordingly. Strong evidence suggests that domestic burglary reduction strategies in Sandwell should usefully focus resources on those households which have been previously burgled. It was proposed that the concentration measure provides a tool for targeting in two ways: (1) police officers can use their own knowledge of the area, along with the concentration measure to deploy the necessary resources needed to alleviate the problem and (2) areas with differing concentration measures might imply the deployment of different initiatives but at differing intensities.