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Reflections on Risk Analysis, Screening, and Contested Rationalities

NCJ Number
215223
Journal
Canadian Journal of Criminology and Criminal Justice Volume: 48 Issue: 3 Dated: June 2006 Pages: 453-469
Author(s)
Peter K. Manning
Date Published
June 2006
Length
17 pages
Annotation
This article reflects social-science and crisis-management discussions of how to manage the risk of low-probability, high-cost threats, such as those associated with terrorist strategies and tactics.
Abstract
The assessment of threats and the fear of them are shaped by "big bang events" such as September 11. The fear of a recurrence shapes future risk management decisions, prevention tactics, and organizational routines. Decisions are made under the sense of an impending crisis, which produces pressure for a quick consensus that leads to prompt action. There is an impatience with lengthy and thorough study and deliberation on multiple issues and alternative actions. Incremental steps tend to be rejected in favor of a massive overhaul of security measures. This produces ill-conceived policies that fail in their effect but are continued because their architects need to justify their actions, and those who implement them are profiting. 12 notes and 25 references