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Predictors of Homicide Clearance by Arrest: An Event History Analysis of NIBRS Incidents

NCJ Number
219099
Journal
Homicide Studies Volume: 11 Issue: 2 Dated: June 2007 Pages: 82-93
Author(s)
Aki Roberts
Date Published
May 2007
Length
12 pages
Annotation
Using event-history analysis, this study examined the effects of victim and situational characteristics on clearance by arrest for 1,579 murders and nonnegligent manslaughters recorded in the 2002 National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS).
Abstract
The study found that situational characteristics related to evidence and information were stronger predictors of homicide clearances than victim characteristics that might influence police commitment to an investigation. The analysis found that homicides with female or younger victims were more likely to be cleared by arrests. Also, homicides with victims who were involved in drug-related and gang-related activities were more likely to be cleared. The significant impact of victim characteristics on clearance rates disappeared, however, after controlling for situational variables related to physical evidence, the amount of case-related information, and the existence of witnesses. The situational characteristics that increased the likelihood of clearance were an intoxicated offender, a victim-offender prior relationship, the use of contact weapons, and other serious offenses accompanying the murder. Data on victim characteristics addressed gender, age, and race. The analysis also focused on the victim's involvement in deviant activity. Data on situational characteristics pertained to suspected substance use by the offender, a victim-offender relationship, type of weapon, time of day when the homicide was committed, and the number of associated violent offenses. 2 tables, 7 notes, and 29 references

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