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Space-Time Patterns of Risk: A Cross National Assessment of Residential Burglary Victimization

NCJ Number
219649
Journal
Journal of Quantitative Criminology Volume: 23 Issue: 3 Dated: September 2007 Pages: 201-219
Author(s)
Shane D. Johnson; Wim Bernasco; Kate J. Bowers; Henk Elffers; Jerry Ratcliffe; George Rengert; Michael Townsley
Date Published
September 2007
Length
19 pages
Annotation
In an attempt to advance research that found in the wake of a residential burglary, that the risk to nearby houses is temporarily elevated; this study examined and compared patterns of burglary risk across a range of urban environments in different countries.
Abstract
For every dataset analyzed, more burglaries occurred close to each other in space and time than would be expected on the basis of chance, and the size of the effect typically conformed to expectation. The results confirm that burglary clusters in space, as well as when a burglary occurs at one location, a further burglary is likely to occur nearby and that it will do so swiftly. As time elapses, this communication of risk decays. The literature shows that victims experience an elevated risk of crime in the months that follow an initial event which has implications for crime prevention. The central aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that near-repeat victimization is an ever-present phenomenon. Using techniques developed in the field of epidemiology, patterns of burglary in two different areas in each of five separate countries were explored with confirmatory results emerging. Tables, figures, and references

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