U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government, Department of Justice.

NCJRS Virtual Library

The Virtual Library houses over 235,000 criminal justice resources, including all known OJP works.
Click here to search the NCJRS Virtual Library

Policing Australia's 'Heroin Drought': Using an Agent-Based Model to Simulate Alternative Outcomes

NCJ Number
224430
Journal
Journal of Experimental Criminology Volume: 4 Issue: 3 Dated: September 2008 Pages: 267-287
Author(s)
Anne Dray; Lorraine Mazerolle; Pascal Perez; Alison Ritter
Date Published
September 2008
Length
21 pages
Annotation
This article examines the disruption to drug supply to street-level market dynamics in Australia.
Abstract
The results show that macro-level disruptions to drug supply had a limited impact on street-level market dynamics when there was a ready replacement drug. By contrast, street-level police interventions were shown to vary in their capacity to alter drug market dynamics. Importantly, the work’s laboratory abstraction of problem-orientated policing was shown to be the optimal strategy to disrupt street-level injecting-drug markets, reduce crimes, and minimize harm, regardless of the type of drug being supplied to the market. The paper sought to examine how street-level drug markets adapted to a macro-level disruption to the supply of heroin, under three experimental conditions of street-level drug law enforcement: random patrol, hot-spot policing, and problem-orientated policing. It utilized an agent-based model to explore the relative impact of abstractions of these three law enforcement strategies after simulating an ‘external shock’ to the supply of heroin to the street-level drug market. The findings were derived from 3 years of data, which include the period of the ‘heroin drought’ in Melbourne, Australia that commenced in late 2000 and early 2001, to measure changes in a selected range of crime and harm indicators under the three policing conditions. Tables, figures, references