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Strategic Hub Concept: Plan C for Iraq?

NCJ Number
226289
Journal
Studies in Conflict & Terrorism Volume: 31 Issue: 12 Dated: December 2008 Pages: 1055-1071
Author(s)
Allan Orr
Date Published
December 2008
Length
17 pages
Annotation
This article applies to the war in Iraq a concept of counterinsurgency called a “strategic hub,“ which posits that the development of insurgent and militia nodes or “hubs” of activity could provide a more relevant way to address the key dilemmas in the efforts of the Coalition and Iraq Government’s inability to secure the country.
Abstract
In post-“surge” Iraq, there are four factors that must be effectively addressed in order to achieve a transition to the desired final phase, which is to have a democratically elected government and security resources that can protect and advance the mission of the elected government. The first factor that must be managed is the draw-down of Coalition forces in Iraq. The second factor is the immaturity of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), and the third factor is the intensity of the sectarian conflict and insurgency. The fourth factor is the level of indigenous Iraqi and domestic Coalition support for the war. The “surge” significantly reduced the sectarian violence by displacing numbers of Sunni insurgents and Shi’a militia groups, which shifted the fighting from western Iraq and the ethnically mixed areas of Baghdad into areas of northern, southern, and eastern Iraq. A medium level of insurgency remains, along with deep-seated ethno-religious mistrust. Shi’a militias continue to penetrate the ISF; ethnic cleansing persists in Baghdad, albeit at reduced rates, as Sunni irregulars and Shi’a militias prepare for a possible second round of fighting. In the midst of this volatile instability, al Qaeda in Mesopotamia will attempt to orient allegiances and events to its advantage. Under the proposed “strategic hub” approach, the Coalition and Iraq Government would cede both the Sunni insurgency and Shi’s militias a few carefully selected Iraqi cities by withdrawing all counterinsurgency forces from these cities. 1 figure and 42 notes