skip navigation


Register for Latest Research

Stay Informed
Register with NCJRS to receive NCJRS's biweekly e-newsletter JUSTINFO and additional periodic emails from NCJRS and the NCJRS federal sponsors that highlight the latest research published or sponsored by the Office of Justice Programs.

NCJRS Abstract

The document referenced below is part of the NCJRS Virtual Library collection. To conduct further searches of the collection, visit the Virtual Library. See the Obtain Documents page for direction on how to access resources online, via mail, through interlibrary loans, or in a local library.


NCJ Number: 241504 
Title: Assessing Macro-Level Predictors and Theories of Crime: A Meta-Analysis (From Crime and Justice: A Review of Research, Volume 32, P 373-450, 2005, Michael Tonry, ed. – See NCJ-241498)
Author(s): Travis C. Pratt; Francis T. Cullen
Date Published: 2005
Page Count: 78
Sponsoring Agency: University of Chicago Press
Chicago, IL 60637
Sale Source: University of Chicago Press
1427 East 60th Street
Chicago, IL 60637
United States of America
Type: Research (Theoretical)
Format: Book Chapter
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: This essay presents the results of a meta-analysis of research that assessed macro-level predictors and theories of crime.
Abstract: The macro-level approach reemerged as a salient criminological paradigm in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Prompted by new theories and reformulations of existing ones, over 200 empirical studies explored ecological correlates of crime. Few efforts have been made, however, to “make sense” of this literature. A “meta-analysis” was undertaken to determine the relative effects of macro-level predictors of crime. Indicators of “concentrated disadvantage” (e.g., racial heterogeneity, poverty, and family disruption) are among the strongest and most stable predictors. Except for incarceration, variables indicating increased use of the criminal justice system (e.g., policing and get-tough policy effects) are among the weakest. Across all studies, social disorganization and resource/economic deprivation theories receive strong empirical support, anomie/strain, social support/social altruism, and routine activity theories receive moderate support; and deterrence/rational choice and subcultural theories receive weak support. (Published Abstract)
Main Term(s): Crime causes theory
Index Term(s): Crime prediction; Criminality prediction; Poverty and crime; Prediction; Strain theory
To cite this abstract, use the following link:

*A link to the full-text document is provided whenever possible. For documents not available online, a link to the publisher's website is provided. Tell us how you use the NCJRS Library and Abstracts Database - send us your feedback.