NCJ Number
43109
Journal
Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency Volume: 14 Issue: 2 Dated: (JULY 1977) Pages: 222-236
Date Published
1977
Length
15 pages
Annotation
THE STATISTICAL CONCEPT OF 'PROBABILITY OF PAROLE VIOLATION' CAN BE USED TO REDUCE THE NEED FOR LENGTHY FOLLOW-UP PERIODS OF 2 YEARS OR MORE FOR PAROLE STUDIES TO A PERIOD OF 6 MONTHS TO A YEAR.
Abstract
THE PAROLE VIOLATION PROBABILITY FACTOR (PVX) HAS BEEN DEVELOPED OVER TWO DECADES. HERE IT IS APPLIED TO DATA FROM A 2-YEAR CALIFORNIA 'TIME SERVED' STUDY, WHICH COMPARED PAROLE VIOLATIONS OF PERSONS RELEASED 6 MONTHS EARLY WITH THOSE OF PERSONS RELEASED ON SCHEDULE. THE STUDY FOUND NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO GROUPS. USING PVX, THE TREND IS DISCOVERED BETWEEN MONTH 5 AND 7 AND IS CONFIRMED BY MONTH 12. FOR POLICY PURPOSES, USE OF PVX CAN SHORTEN STUDY TIME, MAKE POSSIBLE MORE FLEXIBLE STUDIES, AND REDUCE STUDY COSTS.