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SIGNAL DETECTABILITY THEORY AND THE EVALUATION OF PREDICTION TABLES

NCJ Number
43110
Journal
Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency Volume: 14 Issue: 2 Dated: (JULY 1977) Pages: 237-246
Author(s)
D M FERGUSSON; J K FIFIELD; S W SLATER
Date Published
1977
Length
10 pages
Annotation
THIS MATHEMATICAL PAPER APPLIES THE THEORY OF SIGNAL DETECTABILITY (TSD), DEVELOPED FOR ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING, TO STUDIES ATTEMPTING TO PREDICT CRIMINAL BEHAVIOR.
Abstract
AFTER AN IN-DEPTH EXPLANATION OF TSD AND ITS USE IN THE STUDY OF COMMUNICATION BETWEEN INFORMATION SOURCES AND RECEIVERS OVER NOISY CHANNELS, ITS POSSIBLE APPLICATION IN CRIMINOLOGY IS EXPLORED. TSD IS USED TO DETERMINE A LIKELIHOOD RATIO, IN THIS CASE A LIKELIHOOD THAT A CERTAIN SET OF VARIABLES WILL RESULT IN CRIMINAL BEHAVIOR. THIS IS DONE THROUGH A RECEIVER OPERATING CHARACTERISTICS CURVE, WHICH INCORPORATES THE EFFECTS OF DIFFERENT DECISION RULES ON A PREDICTION TABLE. APPLICATION OF THIS THEORY TO A STUDY OF YOUNG OFFENDERS IN NEW ZEALAND IS DETAILED. IN RETROSPECT, USE OF TSD THEORY WOULD HAVE GIVEN THE SAME RESULTS AS WERE ACTUALLY OBTAINED OVER THE 7 YEARS OF THE ACTUAL STUDY. IT IS SUGGESTED THAT TSD HAS GOOD PREDICTIVE POSSIBILITIES.