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CRIMINAL JUSTICE PLANNING - PREDICTION OR PROJECTION (FROM CRIMINAL JUSTICE PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT, 1977 BY ALVIN W COHN - SEE NCJ-44961)

NCJ Number
44962
Author(s)
M S KATZ
Date Published
1977
Length
12 pages
Annotation
CRIMINAL JUSTICE PLANNING IN A SOCIAL CONTEXT AND THE USE OF EVALUATION RESEARCH AS A BASIS FOR PLANNING ARE DISCUSSED.
Abstract
PLANNING IS THE PROCESS OF PREPARING A SET OF DECISIONS FOR ACTION IN THE FUTURE, DIRECTED AT ACHIEVING GOALS BY OPTIMUM MEANS. CAUTION MUST BE EXERCISED WHEN PLANNING, AS THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM DEALS WITH THE LIVES AND FUTURES OF MANY PEOPLE. THERE IS A NEED FOR CRIMINAL JUSTICE PLANNERS TO ESTABLISH A DEFINITION OF THEIR MISSION; IT MUST BE DETERMINED WHETHER THEIR GOAL IS PREDICTION OR PROJECTION. PREDICTION MEANS TELLING BEFOREHAND OF AN OCCURRENCE THAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN, WHILE PROJECTION IS THE TREATMENT OF WHAT IS ESSENTIALLY A SUBJECTIVE ITEM AS AN OBJECTIVE AND EXTERNAL ITEM. A MODEL OF PROJECTION, I.E., TAKING THE KNOWNS AND EXTENDING THEM OUT TO A LOGICAL SUMMATION OF PAST HISTORY, IS RECOMMENDED AS THE WORKING FORMAT OF CRIMINAL JUSTICE PLANNING. IT MUST BEGIN WITH EVALUATION RESEARCH. STATISTICS AND DATA ARE CRITICAL TO PROPER PLANNING, AND SO CRIMINAL JUSTICE AGENCIES MUST DEVELOP RELIABLE RECORD SYSTEMS AND DATA ANALYSIS PROCEDURES. THE METHODS OF RATIONAL ANALYSIS MUST SERVE TO PROVIDE A PRECISE CALCULATION OF THE COST AND RETURNS TO BE EXPECTED FOR EACH FEASIBLE COURSE OF ACTION, AND THEY MUST ALSO BE OF BENEFIT IN DETERMINING WHETHER A GIVEN COURSE OF ACTION IS FEASIBLE OR NOT. PLANNERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT SOCIAL PHENOMENA ARE IN A CONSTANT STATE OF FLUX, AND THUS ANALYTICAL DESCRIPTIONS OF A SOCIETY OR ACTIONS WITHIN THAT SOCIETY MUST BE CONSTANTLY REVISED. THE PRIMARY TARGET FOR CRIME AND DELINQUENCY POLICY SHOULD BE NEITHER THE INDIVIDUAL NOR JUST THE COMMUNITY SETTING, BUT THE ENTIRE SPECTRUM OF THE CRIME AND DELINQUENCY DEFINING PROCESSES THEMSELVES. LONG-RANGE PLANNING MUST TAKE PLACE WITHIN A SOCIAL CONTEXT.

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