INTRODUCTORY SECTIONS EXAMINE THE PROBLEMS OF THE DISCIPLINE OF CRIMINOLOGY IN THE UNITED STATES AND OF CRIME CONTROL POLICY, IDENTIFY A FEW CENTRAL THEORIES RELATING TO THE NATURE OF THE LARGER SOCIETY AND TO CRIME LEVELS, AND REVIEW THE DIRECTIONS PROVIDED BY RESEARCH THAT HAS PROBED THESE THEORIES. IN ORDER TO PERFORM A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS, IN WHICH STATISTICAL MEASURES ARE COLLECTED AND RECORDED AT SUCCESSIVE INTERVALS OF TIME, TO TEST ALTERNATIVE VIEWS OF CRIME CAUSATION, THE BENCHMARKS OF 1890-1970 WERE DETERMINED FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA BY THE AVAILABILITY OF REALITIVELY ADEQUATE POLICE DATA FROM A SERIES OF ANNUAL REPORTS. THREE TIME PERIODS -- 1890-1918, 1919-1945, AND 1946-1970 -- WERE IDENTIFIED FOR THE STUDY. POLICE ARREST DATA FOR CLASS I CRIMES (HOMICIDE, AGGRAVATED ASSAULT, RAPE, GRAND LARCENY, BURGLARY, ROBBERY, AND AUTO THEFT) AND FOR TOTALS OF CLASS I CRIMES AND FOR ALL CRIMES WERE UTILIZED AS DEPENDENT VARIABLES. IN ADDITION, DEATHS DUE TO HOMICIDE AND TO SUICIDE WERE OBTAINED FROM MORALITY SERIES AND DECENNIAL POPULATION ESTIMATES BY RACE WERE OBTAINED FROM U.S. CENSUS BUREAU DATA FROM 1890-1970. YEARLY POPULATION ESTIMATES BETWEEN THE DECADE YEARS WERE PROCURED FROM THE DEMOGRAPHIC UNIT OF THE D.C. GOVERNMENT FOR THE PERIOD 1900-1970. PRIMARY EMPHASIS WAS PLACED ON PARAMETRIC CORRELATIONS BETWEEN VARIABLES, AND THE DECISION WAS MADE TO USE MULTIPLE REGRESSION ANALYSIS. CONSTANTS IN EACH TIME PERIOD INCLUDED CYCLES OF DEPRESSION AND PROSPERITY, WAR AND PEACE, CONSENSUS AND DISSENSUS, AND CHANGING MOODS OF HOPE FOLLOWED BY ANOMIE AMONG THE BLACK POPULATION. FOR ALL THREE DIMENSIONS MEASURED IN THE STUDY, -- ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, POPULATION, AND THE JUDICIAL SYSTEM -- CHANGE WAS MORE MODERATE FOR THE FIRST PERIOD THAN IN LATER PERIODS. MOST OF THE STATISTICAL VARIANCE IN CRIME LEVELS TENDED TO BE EXPLAINED BY FACTORS THAT WERE TAPPED WITH TIME SERIES DATA: ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND CHANGES, ECOLOGICAL BALANCES AND CHANGES, AND POLICE FORCE SIZE AND RATIO. BOTH THE ECONOMIC AND ECOLOGICAL VARIABLES WERE DISCOVERED, IN REPEATED TESTS, TO EXPLAIN RELATIVELY HIGH LEVELS OF VARIANCE. ECONOMIC CONDITIONS WERE HYPOTHESIZED TO AFFECT LEVELS OF PROPERTY CRIMES, BUT WERE ALSO FOUND TO CORRELATE HIGHLY WITH LEVELS OF PERSONAL VIOLENCE. ECOLOGICAL CHANGE AFFECTS LEVELS OF PROPERTY CRIMES AS WELL AS LEVELS OF VIOLENT CRIMES, ESPECIALLY AMONG ARRESTS OF THE YOUNG AND AMATEUR. THE POLICE VARIABLE WAS INTERPRETED AS A FACTOR WHICH ADDS TO STRUCTURAL STRAIN, TENDING TO EXACERBATE LEVELS OF MANY CLASS I CRIMES AND SUICIDES, PARTICULARLY FOR CRIME RATES OF THE WHITE MINORITY GROUP EXAMINED IN THE STUDY. THE PRINCIPAL IMPLICATION OF THE RESEARCH IS THAT SOCIAL TIES OF INDIVIDUALS ARE DISRUPTED THROUGH STRAINS ENGENDERED BY MACROSTRUCTURAL FORCES IN SOCIETY, LARGELY BEYOND THE CONTROL OF ANY ONE INDIVIDUAL; IT IS POINTED OUT, HOWEVER, THAT MAJOR POLICY DIRECTIONS AND EXPENDITURES AIM AT THE MANAGEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL CHANGE. POLICY IMPLICATIONS ARE DISCUSSED. REFERENCES, TABULAR DATA, AND A NAME INDEX ARE PROVIDED. (DAS)