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DETERRENCE EFFECTIVENESS MEASUREMENT

NCJ Number
47893
Journal
Criminology Volume: 16 Issue: 1 Dated: (MAY 1978) Pages: 115-131
Author(s)
S J DEUTSCH
Date Published
1978
Length
17 pages
Annotation
AN APPROACH TO IMPROVING THE USE OF UNIFORM CRIME REPORT (UCR) DATA IN EVALUATING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM IS DESCRIBED.
Abstract
ALTHOUGH CERTAIN WEAKNESSES IN THE ACCURACY OF UCR DATA HAVE BEEN SHOWN, THE FACT THAT UCR INFORMATION HAS BEEN COLLECTED FOR MANY YEARS AND GENERALLY IS CONSISTENT WITH SEVERAL OTHER INDICATORS OF VICTIMIZATION (E.G., VICTIM SURVEYS) SUPPORTS THE USE OF UCR DATA AS AN ESTIMATE OF ACTUAL CRIME. THE UTILITY OF CRIME ESTIMATES DEPENDS ON THE OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY IN WHICH THEY ARE EMPLOYED. STUDIES ASSESSING RELATIVE CHANGE RATHER THAN NOMINAL LEVELS OR PRIORITY RANKING ARE PRIME CANDIDATES FOR UCR-TYPE DATA. UCR DATA ON CRIME IN ATLANTA, GA., FROM 1970-1973, ARE USED TO DEVELOP AN EMPIRICAL-STOCHASTIC MODEL OF TOTAL CRIME IN ATLANTA. THE MODEL IS USED TO QUANTIFY VARIATIONS AND/OR SHIFTS IN CRIME PATTERNS FOLLOWING INTERVENTIONS IN THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM. THE MODELING PROCESS, TOGETHER WITH COMPOSITE HYPOTHESIS TESTS, MAY BE USED TO IDENTIFY A POINT IN TIME AT WHICH THE CRIME INDEX GOES FROM AN 'IN CONTROL' TO AN 'OUT OF CONTROL' STATE. EQUATIONS, DATA, AND A LIST OF REFERENCES ARE INCLUDED. (AUTHOR ABSTRACT MODIFIED--LKM)

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