U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government, Department of Justice.

NCJRS Virtual Library

The Virtual Library houses over 235,000 criminal justice resources, including all known OJP works.
Click here to search the NCJRS Virtual Library

PREDICTION OF PAROLE OUTCOME BASED ON DISCRIMINANT FUNCTION

NCJ Number
50119
Journal
Corrective and Social Psychiatry and Journal of Behavior Technology Methods and Therapy Volume: 24 Issue: 2 Dated: (1978) Pages: 93-101
Author(s)
R C BROWN; C A D'AGISTINO; R A CRADDICK
Date Published
1978
Length
5 pages
Annotation
DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS IS USED TO EXAMINE 9 VARIABLES PREVIOUSLY SHOWN TO BE RELATED TO PAROLE SUCCESS. CASE FILES ARE EXAMINED FOR 138 MEN AGED 19 TO 33 PAROLED FROM THE GEORGIA TRAINING AND DEVELOPMENT CENTER.
Abstract
THE NINE VARIABLES EXAMINED WERE: PREINSTITUTIONAL VARIABLES -- NUMBER OF PRIOR FELONY CONVICTIONS AND TYPE OF LAST FELONY CONVICTION (PROPERTY OR NONPROPERTY); INTRAINSTITUTIONAL VARIABLES -- PARTICIPATION IN VOCATIONAL TRAINING DURING INCARCERATION, PARTICIPATION IN ACADEMIC TRAINING DURING INCARCERATION, OR PROCESSED BY A DIAGNOSTIC CENTER DURING INCARCERATION; AND POSTINSTITUTIONAL VARIABLES -- AGE AT TIME OF PAROLE, HOURLY WAGE RECEIVED ON JOB, NUMBER OF CONTACTS WITH PAROLE OFFICER DURING FIRST 3 MONTHS, AND PAROLE OFFICER TO WHICH ASSIGNED (RURAL OR URBAN). THE NUMBER OF PRIOR FELONY CONVICTIONS ACCOUNTED FOR ALMOST HALF THE TOTAL VARIANCE. ALTHOUGH THERE WAS CORRELATION BETWEEN AGE AT TIME OF PAROLE AND NUMBER OF PRIOR FELONY CONVICTIONS, AGE AT TIME OF PAROLE WAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CORRELATED WITH PAROLE OUTCOME, INDICATING THAT FOR THIS SAMPLE PRIOR FELONY CONVICTIONS, NOT AGE, IS THE SIGNIFICANT STATIC VARIABLE. HOURLY WAGE ON PAROLE JOB AND NUMBER OF CONTACTS WITH PAROLE OFFICER DURING THE FIRST 3 MONTHS OF PAROLE WERE ALSO SIGNIFICANT PREDICTORS. IT IS SUGGESTED THAT A PAROLEE WHO IS EARNING AN ADEQUATE INCOME FEELS NO NEED TO RESORT TO CRIME. NONE OF THE THREE REHABILITATIVE PROGRAMS -- ACADEMIC TRAINING, VOCATIONAL TRAINING, AND DIAGNOSTIC EVALUATION -ACCOUNTED FOR MORE THAN A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE VARIANCE. EXAMINATION OF THE CASE RECORDS ALSO SHOWED THAT OLDER MEN WITH LENGTHY CRIMINAL HISTORIES TENDED NOT TO HAVE BEEN IN REHABILITATIVE PROGRAMS. IT IS SUGGESTED THAT GREATER EFFORTS BE MADE TO ENROLL REPEAT OFFENDERS IN SUCH PROGRAMS. THIS, COMBINED WITH CLOSE SUPERVISION, MIGHT REDUCE RECIDIVISM. FURTHER SUCH MULTIFACTOR ANALYSES ARE URGED. A BIBLIOGRAPHY IS APPENDED. (GLR)

Downloads

No download available

Availability