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CRIME TRENDS IN MODERN DEMOCRACIES SINCE 1945

NCJ Number
51429
Journal
Annales Internationales de Criminologie Volume: 16 Issue: 1-2 Dated: (1977) Pages: 41-85
Author(s)
T R GURR
Date Published
1977
Length
45 pages
Annotation
A SYSTEMATIC COMPARISON OF CRIME TRENDS SINCE 1945 IS PRESENTED FOR 18 ECONOMICALLY DEVELOPED DEMOCRACIES. THE EVIDENCE SUGGESTS THAT RISING COMMON CRIME RATES ARE A PERVASIVE PHENOMENON IN WESTERN SOCIETIES.
Abstract
CHARTS, TABLES, GRAPHS, AND A NARRATIVE SUMMARY TRACE CRIME RATES FROM 1945 THROUGH 1976 FOR AUSTRALIA, CANADA, ENGLAND AND WALES, NEW ZEALAND, THE UNITED STATES, DENMARK, NORWAY, SWEDEN, FINLAND, AUSTRIA, THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY, SWITZERLAND, FRANCE, IRELAND, ITALY, THE NETHERLANDS, ISRAEL, AND JAPAN. THIS OVERVIEW DISCLOSES THAT RISING COMMON CRIME RATES ARE AN ALMOST UNIVERSAL PROBLEM. THIS IS PARTICULARLY TRUE OF PROPERTY CRIME RATES. THE SURVEY SHOWS THAT THE INCREASE BEGAN IN THE ENGLISH-SPEAKING NATIONS IN THE 1950'S AND WAS OBSERVED IN MOST CONTINENTAL COUNTRIES AND SCANDINAVIA IN THE 1960'S. SWITZERLAND IS THE SINGLE EUROPEAN EXCEPTION, MAINTAINING STABLE PROPERTY CRIME RATES. JAPAN STANDS IN CONTRAST WITH A REDUCTION IN ITS PROPERTY CRIME INCIDENCE. MURDER AND ASSAULT RATES HAVE INCREASED ALSO FOLLOWING THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN AS PROPERTY CRIME RATES. JAPAN, AGAIN, HAS REDUCED THE INCIDENCE OF THESE OFFENSES. TRENDS IN WHITE-COLLAR CRIME PARALLEL THE TRENDS IN COMMON CRIME. EXCEPTIONS ARE SWEDEN, FINLAND, THE NETHERLANDS, AND GERMANY, WHERE PROSECUTION FOR WHITE-COLLAR CRIME HAS HELD STEADY OR DECLINED. ONE MAJOR REASON FOR THE LACK OF INCREASES IS THE DECRIMINALIZATION OF CERTAIN OFFENSES WHICH GIVE AUTHORITIES TIME TO CONCENTRATE ON COMMON CRIME. IT IS CONCLUDED THAT INCREASING CRIME RATES TRULY REFLECT INCREASING CRIME, NOT IMPROVED REPORTING. MOST INDICATORS OF COMMON CRIME HAVE AT LEAST DOUBLED WHILE SOME HAVE INCREASED 500-800 PERCENT AND A FEW BY MORE THAN 1000 PERCENT. RESEARCH TO DETERMINE CAUSES IS URGED. REFERENCES ARE PROVIDED. (GLR)

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