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ANALYSIS OF URBAN CRIME - A METHODOLOGICAL REFINEMENT OF THE ECOLOGICAL APPROACH

NCJ Number
51662
Author(s)
G S UPPAL
Date Published
1975
Length
256 pages
Annotation
DATA ON CRIME OCCURRENCE AND DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS FOR ALBANY, N.Y., AND THE SURROUNDING AREA ARE EMPLOYED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODEL FOR THE ECOLOGICAL ANALYSIS OF CRIME.
Abstract
THE ECOLOGICAL APPROACH TO STUDYING URBAN CRIME IS BASED ON THE THEORY THAT CRIME IS A FUNCTION OF THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE AREA IN WHICH IT OCCURS. A REVIEW OF PREVIOUS ECOLOGICAL STUDIES SUGGESTS SEVERAL METHODOLOGICAL WEAKNESSES, SUCH AS FAILURE TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT UNREPORTED CRIME AND GEOGRAPHICAL VARIANCE IN THE EXTENT OF OPPORTUNITY TO COMMIT CRIME. IN AN EFFORT TO ADDRESS THESE METHODOLOGICAL PROBLEMS, DATA ON CRIME OCCURRENCE AND DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS WERE OBTAINED FOR 75 CENSUS TRACTS IN ALBANY, SCHENECTADY, TROY, COHOES, WATERVLIET, AND COLONIE, N.Y. (KNOWN AS THE STATE'S CAPITAL DISTRICT). SEVEN CATEGORIES OF CRIME WERE CONSIDERED: HOMICIDE AND AGGRAVATED ASSAULT, ROBBERY, RESIDENTIAL BURGLARY, RESIDENTIAL LARCENY, BUSINESS BURGLARY, BUSINESS LARCENY, AND AUTO THEFT. ALL INCIDENTS REPORTED TO THE POLICE DURING 1972 WERE ALLOCATED BY CENSUS TRACT OF OCCURRENCE. DEMOGRAPHIC DATA WERE OBTAINED FROM THE 1970 CENSUS. FINDINGS FROM LEAA'S NATIONAL VICTIMIZATION SURVEYS WERE USED TO ADJUST THE REPORTED CRIME DATA FOR UNREPORTED INCIDENTS. OPPORTUNITY GROUPS (UNITS OF ANALYSIS THAT REPRESENT PEOPLE ACTUALLY AT RISK OF VICTIMIZATION, RATHER THAN THE GENERAL POPULATION OF AN AREA) WERE DEFINED FOR EACH CATEGORY OF CRIME. ON THE BASIS OF THESE REVISED FIGURES, CRIME RATES WERE COMPUTED FOR THE CENSUS TRACTS AND USED AS DEPENDENT VARIABLES IN A CORRELATIONAL ANALYSIS. MAJOR FINDINGS ARE THE FOLLOWING: (1) THE VOLUME OF CRIME REPORTED TO THE POLICE IS A GROSS UNDERESTIMATE OF THE ACTUAL LEVEL OF CRIME; (2) AN ECOLOGY OF UNREPORTED CRIME EXISTS (THE EXTENT OF UNREPORTED CRIME IS POSITIVELY CORRELATED WITH AVERAGE FAMILY INCOME IN AN AREA); AND (3) CRIME RATES BASED ON OPPORTUNITY FACTORS, WHEN ADJUSTED FOR UNREPORTED INCIDENTS, SUGGEST THAT THE DISTRIBUTION OF URBAN CRIME DOES NOT FOLLOW THE PATTERN INDICATED BY MOST STUDIES. THE DATA SHOW THAT CRIME IS NOT NECESSARILY CONCENTRATED IN CENTRAL CITY AREAS, AND THAT THE SUBURBS HAVE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER RATES OF CRIME THAN HAD BEEN PROPOSED PREVIOUSLY. IT IS CONCLUDED THAT THE VIEW THAT CENTRAL CITIES ARE MORE CRIME PRONE THAN SUBURBS MAY HAVE REFLECTED METHODOLOGICAL WEAKNESSES IN EARLIER STUDIES. ON THE BASIS OF THE ANALYSIS, A MODEL FOR THE ECOLOGICAL ANALYSIS OF URBAN CRIME IS DELINEATED. IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS FOR UNDERSTANDING THE NATURE OF CRIME AND CRIMINAL LAW ARE POINTED OUT, WITH SPECIAL ATTENTION TO THE PROPOSITION THAT VARIATIONS IN THE SOCIOECONOMIC BACKGROUND OF RESIDENTS AFFECT CRIMINAL JUSTICE PRACTICES, INCLUDING THE OFFICIAL RECORDING OF CRIME. SUPPORTING DATA AND A BIBLIOGRAPHY ARE INCLUDED. (LKM)