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POLICY EVALUATION UNDER UNCERTAINTY - AN APPROACH USING SUBJECTIVE INFORMATION

NCJ Number
56749
Journal
SOCIO-ECONOMIC PLANNING SCIENCES Volume: 12 Issue: 5 Dated: (1978) Pages: 277-284
Author(s)
J TYDEMAN; R MITCHELL
Date Published
1978
Length
8 pages
Annotation
A PROCEDURE FOR SYSTEMATICALLY USING SUBJECTIVE JUDGMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY IN POLICY EVALUATION IS DEVELOPED AND APPLIED IN A DEFENSE-PLANNING CONTEXT.
Abstract
THE PROCEDURE INVOLVES FIVE STEPS: EVENT GENERATION, EVENT ASSESSMENT, CROSS-EVENT ANALYSIS, SCENARIO GENERATION, AND SYSTEMS IMPACT ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION. MEMBERS OF THE DECISIONMAKING GROUP FIRST IDENTIFY A SET OF POSSIBLE DISTURBANCES TO THE STATUS QUO. ONCE THE SET IS ESTABLISHED, THE EXPECTED IMPACT OF EACH EVENT ON THE SYSTEM IN QUESTION IS ASSESSED, THE OBJECT BEING TO COLLECT THE JUDGMENTS OF THE GROUP ON A NUMBER OF MEASURES, INCLUDING THE PROBABILITY, SIGNIFICANCE, AND DESIRABILITY OF EACH EVENT IN THE SET. THE NEXT STEP IS TO IDENTIFY ANY INTERRELATIONSHIPS AMONG THE EVENTS. TOGETHER WITH OUTPUT FROM THE EVENT ASSESSMENT, INFORMATION FROM THE CROSS-EVENT ANALYSIS FORMS THE PRIMARY INPUT FOR SCENARIO GENERATION--A PROCEDURE FOR PROVIDING THE DECISIONMAKER WITH A RANGE OF POSSIBLE FUTURES IN WHICH TO EVALUATE THE POLICY PROPOSALS UNDER CONSIDERATION. SCENARIO GENERATION TECHNIQUES (HEURISTIC, SIMULATION, PROGRAMMING) ATTEMPT TO SPECIFY EITHER A BEST (MOST LIKELY) SCENARIO, A SET OF STATISTICALLY CONSISTENT SCENARIOS, OR ONE OR MORE PLAUSIBLE SCENARIOS FROM THE TOTAL SET. IN ADDITION TO USING THE SCENARIOS AS CONTEXTS IN WHICH TO EVALUATE POLICY OPTIONS, THE ANALYST MAY DETERMINE THE IMPACT OF EACH SCENARIO ON AN EXISTING OR PROPOSED SYSTEM. DETAILS OF THE PROCEDURE ARE PRESENTED, AND ITS UTILITY IS DEMONSTRATED IN AN ANALYSIS OF THE IMPLICATIONS OF SOCIAL, POLITICAL, AND ECONOMIC CHANGES ON AUSTRALIA'S DEFENSE POLICY IN SOUTHEAST ASIA. A LIST OF REFERENCES IS INCLUDED. (LKM)

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