THE HIGHEST CRIME RATE IS FOUND AMONG MALE ADULTS 17 TO 29 YEARS OLD. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THIS GROUP OF OFFENDERS IS EXPECTED AFTER 1980 AS A RESULT OF THE LEVELLING OFF OF THE POSTWAR BABY BOOM. HOWEVER, STUDIES HAVE REVEALED THE INFLUENCE OF URBANIZATION AND INDUSTRIALIZATION ON THE INCREASE IN JUVENILE DELINQUENCY DUE TO SUCH PROCESSES AS THE BREAKDOWN OF THE FAMILY. IT IS EXPECTED THAT BY THE END OF THIS CENTURY CRIME RATES WILL INCREASE BECAUSE ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF THE POPULATION OF POLAND WILL BE LIVING IN URBAN AREAS. AN INCREASE MAY ALSO RESULT FROM THE GROWING GAP BETWEEN THE LOWEST AND THE HIGHEST EARNINGS, COMBINED WITH SHORTER WORKING HOURS, AND MORE FREE TIME. TO OFFSET THESE UNFAVORABLE FACTORS, THE PENAL SYSTEM REFORMS ALREADY UNDERWAY IN POLAND SHOULD BE CONTINUED AND INTENSIFIED. THE PRESENT SYSTEM IS EXTREMELY PUNITIVE, OFTEN PERPETUATING RATHER THAN PREVENTING CRIMINAL BEHAVIOR. NEW, NONPUNITIVE STRATEGIES ARE NEEDED. FOOTNOTES ARE INCLUDED. --IN POLISH.