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Prediction of Court Appearance - A Study of Bail in Cleveland (OH)

NCJ Number
75147
Journal
Cleveland State Law Review Volume: 27 Dated: (1978) Pages: 587-617
Author(s)
P T Enslein
Date Published
1978
Length
31 pages
Annotation
Results are presented of a study of bail in Cleveland, Ohio, which was designed to aid in bail evaluation by developing an objective method of predicting the later court appearance of felony defendants.
Abstract
Courts traditionally require a defendant to post a surety bond in order to gain release. If the defendants appear in court later, the money posted with the court is returned to them; if they fail to appear, the bond is forfeited. Normally, the amount of the bond is based on the severity of the offense. Defendants who cannot post bail remain in jail while awaiting trial. Because studies have shown that defendants who remain in custody while awaiting trial tend to have a higher conviction rate and to receive more severe sentences, developing a method of predicting those who will appear for court proceedings would be beneficial. For this study, a population of Cleveland felony defendants was followed as it proceeded through the adjudicative process. The group consisted of 267 individuals who were represented by the public defender's office. A total of 198 individuals were released at some point in the process. During the tracking period, information was gathered from court records, attorneys, and subject interviews. From this information, variables were determined to derive discriminant equations for analysis. Representation by an attorney proved to be the most significant predictive variable; subjects represented by counsel were more likely to appear than defendants who did not have an attorney. Variables related to the strength of the case against a subject also proved to be significant. If the weight of the evidence was great or if there was a complaining witness, the defendant was less likely to appear. Unexpectedly, subjects with severe charges were more likely to appear than those with less severe charges. Of all variables measuring community ties, only material status was positively correlated with court appearance. In general, study results conflict with the beliefs of court and bail reformers as to the factors which are significant in compelling court appearance. For example, increasing the financial severity of the type and amount of bond did not increase the likelihood of appearance. Recommendations for a more effective bail system include increasing the contact for felony defendants through a pretrial supervisory agency or, if the cost of such an agency is prohibitive, through employing 10 percent bail deposit conditions for cases in which now impose surety bonds. Fifty-three footnotes and approximately 20 tables are included in the note.

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