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Development of a Predictive Model for Parole Decision-making The Delaware Case

NCJ Number
78418
Author(s)
D Yanich
Date Published
1980
Length
405 pages
Annotation
This study attempts to develop a decisionmaking tool to identify the variables which affect the successful completion of the parole sentence and the period following supervision.
Abstract
It examines three issues -- the identification of the variables affecting parole outcome, a comparison of the conditional release behavior of persons granted parole (parolees) and persons denied parole (mandatory releasees), and the examination of the behavior of conditional releasees past the conditional release period -in the context of the Delaware Board of Parole. The variables to be investigated are listed, and parole success and failure are defined. The sample studied consists of 270 parolees paroled by the board between 1971-77 with parole sentences of 9 months or more and 135 mandatory releasees whose cases were still active. Data were gathered from the board's files and from the records of the Office of Probation and Parole. The findings show that parole experience variables account for a larger amount of the variance in conditional release and postconditional release outcome than preparole variables. However, when these two sets of variables are combined they account for only about one-half of the total variance in conditional release and postconditional outcomes. Accounting for much of this variance are environmental factors, which parole boards should consider when taking action. Elements of the decisionmaking model are identified, and directions for future research are suggested. Data tables, footnotes, and 94 references are supplied. Additional data tables are appended.