However, most juvenile crime is not repetitive, not serious, and not predictive. In Hennepin County, only 3-4 percent of juvenile offenders should be classified as dangerous. Thus, violence and future criminal behavior are dangerous and notoriously difficult to predict. To help serious juvenile offenders, planners must first clearly define the size and characteristics of the population. Alternatives to incarceration must be developed. One alternative discussed in Minnesota is the establishment of a secure juvenile facility for serious offenders, with treatment programs and aftercare services. Such a program is not likely to succeed since costs are prohibitive, and custody and security concerns are likely to take precedence. Two footnotes are supplied.