U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government, Department of Justice.

NCJRS Virtual Library

The Virtual Library houses over 235,000 criminal justice resources, including all known OJP works.
Click here to search the NCJRS Virtual Library

Strategies in Crime Futurology (From Long Range Thinking and Law Enforcement, P 1-1 - 1-14, 1977, Michael E Sherman, ed. - See NCJ-87436)

NCJ Number
87437
Author(s)
M E Sherman
Date Published
1977
Length
17 pages
Annotation
This discussion of strategies in crime futurology considers general strategies for studying the future, futures research and crime, and choosing a research strategy and tactics for crime futurology.
Abstract
Strategies for thinking about the future can be described in terms of their time frame or their orientation. Along the time-frame axis in a matrix, future thinking can be distinguished as short-term forecasting (1-3 years), where the analyst assumes knowledge of a set of definable causal relations between events through which their future states can be predicted; long-range thinking (5-10 years), where there may be no agreed-upon goal or consensus on general direction, but there is a recognition of the necessity for examining alternative future developments; and future studies (25 years and beyond), an open-ended process not constrained by past or existing conditions or events. On the other axis of the matrix, types of approaches to futures research can be distinguished by orientation: (1) the descriptive approach, attempting to characterize possible future developments; (2) the exploratory approach, focusing more on the systematic extrapolation of past and present developments into the future; and (3) the prescriptive approach, dealing more explicitly with values than the other two orientations. Most studies in crime futures has focused on the short-term and future studies. The proposed research strategy and tactics is that of 'exploratory long-range thinking.' The proposed approach identifies three classes of factors that together influence the future of criminal justice: 'policy-insensitive' factors (e.g., demographic and attitudinal), variables influencing criminal justice that are highly sensitive to public policy made by noncriminal justice agencies, and variables sensitive to criminal justice policy.

Downloads

No download available

Availability