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Economist's Approach to Crime's Future (From Long Range Thinking and Law Enforcement, P 4-1 - 4-68, 1977, Michael E Sherman, ed. - See NCJ-87436)

NCJ Number
87440
Author(s)
I Leveson
Date Published
1977
Length
70 pages
Annotation
The first section of this study examines the relationship between age, unemployment, and crime rate, and the second develops an econometric model that includes possible causal factors correlating with changes in the incidence of crime.
Abstract
The statistical analysis suggests that the adult unemployment rate, measured by the unemployment rate of persons age 20 and over, adjusted for the age-sex composition of the labor force, has no effect on index crime rates; however, variation in the youth unemployment rate, which is independent of the adult unemployment rate, appears to have a powerful effect on crime. Each one percentage point increase in youth unemployment is associated with an 8-10 percent increase in index violent crime. The youth unemployment rate has risen substantially since the 1950's, with the number of unemployed youth increasing 150 percent in the last two decades. The rise is attributed to increases in the number of youth as a percentage of the labor force and to increases in the level and coverage of the minimum wage. The econometric model developed in the second section of this study posits that the average annual rate of crime growth is the sum of the average growth rates of crime attributable to the following component sources of growth: the age distribution of the population, urbanization, factors accounting for racial differences, factors accounting for sex differences, family composition, family size, unemployment, poverty, addiction, and deterrence. By summing the effects of the separate variables, the analysis obtained an estimated annual rate of growth of index crimes of between 3.6 and 5.6 percent from 1952 to 1963. This compare with an actual crime growth of 4.8 percent. This difference can reasonably be explained by improvements in reporting. Between 1963 and 1973, when crime rates rose by 6.7 percent, the sum of the components showed a growth of between 5.3 and 9.3 percent. Tabular data are provided.

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