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Probability of Exclusion or Likelihood of Guilt of an Accused Paternity

NCJ Number
88132
Journal
Journal of the Forensic Science Society Volume: 23 Issue: 1 Dated: (January 1982) Pages: 19-25
Author(s)
S Selvin; B W Grunbaum; B A Myhre
Date Published
1983
Length
7 pages
Annotation
The relative efficiency of generic blood group systems to exclude individuals is discussed.
Abstract
The potential for exclusion based on the combination of genetic systems is calculated showing the utility of genetically controlled polymorphic enzyme/protein and immunologic systems. The key to assessing the guilt or innocence in a paternity dispute using genetic evidence is the estimation of the probability of not being excluded by chance alone. This probability is computed under two sets of conditions: a random male supplied the genes in question, or male with a phenotype identical to the accused supplied the genes in question. Contrasting these two probabilities leads to an estimate of the likelihood of guilt or innocence associated with the evidence from blood group genetic systems. The presentation gives two tables for the calculation of these non-exclusion probabilities in paternity disputes for currently used biochemical and immunological systems. The role of Bayes' theorem is discussed in conjunction with these non-exclusion probabilities. (Publisher abstract)

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