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Offender Expectations and Identification of Crime Supply Functions

NCJ Number
88416
Author(s)
T F Pogue
Date Published
1982
Length
50 pages
Annotation
Individuals' decisions on whether to participate in criminal activity depend on perceived sanction levels that depend in turn on sanction levels realized in past periods.
Abstract
With decisions made in this manner, crime rates and sanction levels are not determined simultaneously, and the identification problem in its usual form does not arise. Arrest and imprisonment sanctions have little contemporaneous effect on burglary, larceny, and robbery rates. Lagged effects, although greater than contemporaneous effects, are statistically significant only in the case of robbery. A total of 24 notes and 25 references are included. (Author abstract modified)