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Celerity - The Ignored Variable in Deterrence Research

NCJ Number
89710
Journal
Journal of Police Science and Administration Volume: 11 Issue: 1 Dated: (March 1983) Pages: 31-37
Author(s)
W L Selke
Date Published
1983
Length
7 pages
Annotation
Police effectiveness was found to correlate positively with burglary rates, while court conviction rates were negatively correlated slightly; quickness of police action and court processing correlated positively with burglary rates, and a high negative correlation was found between short incarceration and burglary rates.
Abstract
This study was longitudinal, contrasted with the cross-sectional designs in which jurisdictions with varying sanctioning levels are compared with similar control jurisdictions. Data were collected over 7 years (1970-76) on burglaries in a medium-sized, midwestern town. Burglary cases were initially identified through the arrest reports maintained by the local police department, and additional cases were located by checking the list of warrants sought and signed in the office of the State's attorney. A total of 281 cases were included in the analysis. The second phase of data collection involved tracking each of the cases through the various phases of court processing, using the records of the circuit court clerk's office. A case-tracking sheet was used to record three general categories of information on the independent variables. The deterrence factors were (1) surety or certainty-police effectiveness (arrests/incidents) and court effectiveness (convictions/arraignments); celerity or swiftness - police efficiency (days between incident and arrest) and court efficiency (days between initial appearance and final disposition); and sentence severity - probation, short incarceration (6 months and under), and extended incarceration. Each of the variables was correlated using simple product-moment correlations with the extent of reported burglaries as measured by the absolute number of reported offenses each month according to the Uniform Crime Reports. The findings are consistent with the general trends of deterrence research. Limited empirical support was evident, with correlations in the expected direction most of the time, although the magnitude was statistically significant only occasionally. Tabular data and 27 references are provided.

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