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Estimating Perceptual Stability and Deterrent Effects - The Role of Perceived Legal Punishment in the Inhibition of Criminal Involvement

NCJ Number
90031
Journal
Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology Volume: 74 Issue: 1 Dated: (Spring 1983) Pages: 270-297
Author(s)
R Paternoster; L E Saltzman; G P Waldo; T G Chiricos
Date Published
1983
Length
28 pages
Annotation
In finding little stability in perceptions of legal punishment over even short time periods, this study casts doubt on the conclusions of prior deterrence studies and suggests the importance of the effect of experience with crime and the criminal justice system on perceptions of punishment.
Abstract
In their recent study, Grasmick and Green used refined measures but retain the cross sectional strategy of deterrence research. They found a significant relationship between perceived legal punishment and criminal behavior even after controls for other inhibitory factors. It has been argued that before such cross sectional correlations can be used to support the deterrence doctrine, there must be considerable stability in the perceptions involved over time. Without such stability, perceptual deterrence researchers may simply be reporting the change that involvement in criminal behavior produces on estimates of punishment certainty and severity. To test the stability of perceptions of legal punishment over time in relation to self-reported involvement in crime, this study used panel data from a sample of college students and a sample of high school students. For both groups, the zero-order correlation between time 1 behavior and time 2 perceptions (experiential effect) was found to be consistently stronger than the effect of time 1 perceptions on time 2 behavior (the deterrent effect). The experiential effect was particularly strong with self-referenced measures of perceived risk. Clearly, additional research is necessary, particularly regarding the experiential effect. Tabular data and 29 footnotes are provided.

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