A New York survey of 165 serious juvenile offenders placed on probation found that 64 percent did not recidivate, and those who did recidivate committed less severe offenses than the conviction offense. Further, most recidivism occurred during the first 11 months of probation. There is an apparent need for intensive supervision of serious offenders, particularly during the first year of probation. Supervision and caseload size should be based on prediction of future behavior, and consistent data collections should be used to monitor the effectiveness of probation services. In Montgomery County, Pa., intensive probation combined with family counseling has proven to be effective with serious juvenile offenders. Probation officers are trained to conduct family counseling, and the officers also interact with other persons having a signficant impact on the offender. Calhoun County, Mich., has developed an instrument for the statistical prediction of juveniles who have various levels of risk for recidivating. Those rated as having a high risk are given intensive supervision and counseling, while the low-risk probationers are given no supervision. Those having minimal risk are loosely supervised. Under this program, there has been a 27 percent reduction in felony recidivism among juvenile probationers from 1977 through 1981. All of the programs described have proven cost-effective when compared to the institutionalization of serious juvenile offenders. Questions and answers following the presentations are provided on the tape.