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Estimating the Economic Model of Crime - The Baltimore Case

NCJ Number
96734
Author(s)
S L Myers
Date Published
1980
Length
17 pages
Annotation
Estimates of arrest equations using data on 432 high-risk male offenders released to the Baltimore metropolitan area between 1971 and 1974 reveal that returns to legitimate economic activity do have a strong effect on crime rates, but certainty and severity of punishment have minor effects.
Abstract
Ann Dryden Witte argues that her analysis of a data set of released prisoners in North Carolina shows certainty and severity of punishment tend to reduce participation in crime; whereas, higher legal wages have an extremely weak deterrent effect. She used total arrests per month free and total convictions per month free, both biased measures. When variables capturing background characteristics and prison and criminal experiences are entered into the equations, Witte's findings are reversed. In the Baltimore Living Insurance for Ex-prisoners (LIFE) experiment, 432 offenders were divided into groups that received weekly stipends of up to $60 per week for 13 weeks, assistance in finding a job, neither, or both. Using this data, a stylized variant of the economic model of crime is estimated. It uses certainty of punishment as calculated to be the ratio of previous convictions to previous arrests. Severity of punishment is the time served for the last offense, and wage is the average weekly wage income for the entire year. These results support a general economic model of crime, as does an analysis of monthly postprison survival probabilities. Equations, tables, and 14 references are supplied.