Recent research has presented actuarially based scales of predictor variables that identify 'career' criminals and derive predictions of the effects of their incapacitation on the overall societal crime rate. While selective incapacitation is currently viewed as a relatively new development in utilitarian criminal justice, this article points out that the prediction of recidivism and the use of actuarially based scales toward that end is a long-standing part of the U.S. federal parole process. An illustration of the selective-incapacitative effects of this process, using a large sample of federal releasees, is presented. (Author abstract)