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NCJ Number: 106519 Find in a Library
Title: Longitudinal Research as a Tool of Criminal Policy (From UNAFEI Annual Report for 1985 and Material Produced During the 70th International Training Course, P 124-133, 1986 -- See NCJ-106514)
Author(s): M E Wolfgang
Date Published: 1986
Page Count: 10
Sponsoring Agency: National Institute of Justice/
Rockville, MD 20849
NCJRS Photocopy Services
Rockville, MD 20849-6000
United Nations Asia and Far East Institute for the Prevention of Crime and Treatment of Offenders
Tokyo, Japan
Sale Source: National Institute of Justice/
NCJRS paper reproduction
Box 6000, Dept F
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United States of America

United Nations Asia and Far East Institute for the Prevention of Crime and Treatment of Offenders
26-1 Harumi-Cho, Fuchu

NCJRS Photocopy Services
Box 6000
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United States of America
Document: PDF
Type: Research (Applied/Empirical)
Language: English
Country: United Nations
Annotation: Two longitudinal studies conducted by the author and Thorsten Sellen illustrate how the statistical analysis of data on the initiation, progression, and cessation of juvenile offending can be used in policymaking to improve the effectiveness and the efficiency of the juvenile justice system.
Abstract: Each study involved a birth cohort. Birth Cohort 1 consisted of 9,945 males born in 1945 and living in Philadelphia from at least age 10 to age 18. Birth Cohort 2 included 28,000 males and females born in 1958. The analysis showed that about 35 percent of the males had at least one arrest before reaching age 18. Most of the offenses were committed by only 6 to 7 percent of the cohorts, however. Forty-seven percent of the youths stopped offending after the first offense, and 38 percent stopped after the second offense. The handling after the arrest had no effect on the results. Interviews with criminal justice officials and university students were also used to develop offense seriousness scales. The findings were part of the basis used to develop career criminal programs. In addition, the Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention has recently started a program focusing on serious violent habitual juvenile offenders. These programs focus resources on the violent few and emphasize incapacitation, thereby improving both efficiency and effectiveness of justice. The studies' findings have also led to the author's recommendation that juvenile records be used in adult proceedings, so that chronic serious offenders can be identified when they commit their first offenses as adults.
Main Term(s): Research uses in policymaking
Index Term(s): Juvenile crime patterns; Juvenile recidivism prediction; Juvenile recidivists; Longitudinal studies; Offense classification
Note: For microfiche, see NCJ-106514.
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