The State juvenile population between 10 and 16 years of age increased by 16 percent between 1990 and 1996, but this population is projected to increase by only 2 percent between 1997 and 2002. Therefore, the larger impact of State juvenile population growth on the juvenile justice system has already occurred. Still, recent juvenile justice reform will impact an increase in juvenile justice populations by requiring juvenile offenders to serve longer terms. In 1995, the Texas legislature and the governor approved a bill to significantly restructure the State juvenile justice system. Effective in January 1996, the reform substantively shifts the emphasis of the juvenile justice system from rehabilitation to punishment. Juvenile offender referrals to probation departments are projected to increase by almost 8 percent, from 136,099 in 1996 to 146,982 in 2002. The population under juvenile probation supervision is projected to increase by 16 percent, from 32,675 in 1995 to 38,024 in 2002. Commitments to the Texas Youth Commission (TYC) are expected to increase by 15 percent, from 2,524 in 1996 to 2,903 in 2002, even though the TYC is presently crowded and operating at 110 percent of its physical capacity. Assumptions used in the juvenile justice projections are delineated. Tables and figures