NCJ Number
163885
Journal
Journal of Crime and Justice Volume: 19 Issue: 2 Dated: (1996) Pages: 121-144
Date Published
1996
Length
24 pages
Annotation
Because many studies have examined measurement problems associated with the use of ratio variables in aggregate-level research but have seldom considered substantive implications of using a particular deflator in lieu of another, the present study questions the conventional wisdom of employing the total population size of social units to deflate raw crime counts.
Abstract
A sample of 109 U.S. cities was selected that contained a sufficiently large number of blacks to allow the calculation of reliable race-based crime rates. Crime data were available for 105 of the 109 cities. Study variables included crime measures, economic deprivation, family structure, age, race, and population size. Multivariate analysis revealed that effects of structural predictors varied dramatically across alternative rate measures of burglary and motor vehicle theft. Although the percentage of the population between 18 and 24 years of age and the percentage of blacks had null effects on the total population, they were inversely related to rate measures they deflated. That is, the percentage of the population between 18 and 24 years of age was negatively related to burglary and motor vehicle theft rates per 1,000 population, and the percentage of blacks was negatively related to burglary and motor vehicle theft rates per 1,000 blacks. Effects of population size on total population-based measures of burglary and motor vehicle theft were also negative. Implications of the findings for macro social criminological research are discussed. 95 references, 3 endnotes, and 3 tables