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Estimating Heroin Imports Into the United States (From NIDA Monograph 57, P 141-157)

NCJ Number
166901
Author(s)
K L Gardiner; R C Schreckengost
Date Published
Unknown
Length
17 pages
Annotation
A dynamic simulation model was developed and used to demonstrate the relationships of basic factors affecting the working of the heroin system and to estimate heroin imports into the United States.
Abstract
Model development began in 1983, using data from the Office of Intelligence of the Drug Enforcement Administration and the National Institute on Drug Abuse. The central concept in the model is the relative abundance measure, the ratio between the amount of heroin available at any time and the amount the addicts want. This ratio indicates the surplus, adequacy, or shortage of the heroin supply and directly affects such factors as price, purity, and the number of heroin users. The model predicted changes in heroin purity over a 10-year period with relative precision and indicated a strong relationship between purity and other factors such as imports and consumption. These findings suggested that it may be possible to use purity figures alone to estimate whether and how much imports of heroin and the size of the United States heroin addict population are expanding, holding steady, or declining. Purity could be a useful measure because it is usually readily available, although purity often varies sharply among daily samples within and among regions. The model might also be useful for monitoring heroin supply and consumption at the city or regional level or for estimating supply and demand relationships for other illegal drugs. Figures, table, and 5 references