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Anticipating the Nature of the Next Conflict

NCJ Number
189482
Journal
Journal of Counterterrorism and Security International Volume: 7 Issue: 3 Dated: Spring 2001 Pages: 18,20,22-24,51
Author(s)
G. I. Wilson; Frank Bunkers; John P. Sullivan
Date Published
2001
Length
6 pages
Annotation
This article explores innovative ways to deal with nontraditional threats to national security.
Abstract
With the demise of the Cold War, conflicts induced by environmental decline are putting a new face on war. The intelligence community has concluded that issues such as the availability of water and food, changes in population, and the spread of information and disease will increasingly affect national security. This assessment indicates ecological deterioration could eclipse ideological conflict as the dominant national security concern throughout the world. The accurate prediction, warning, and analysis of terrorism, transnational threats, asymmetric threats, and fourth generation warfare activities are fast becoming a necessary skill for ensuring national security. Collaboration and partnership, such as interagency, interdisciplinary partnerships with law enforcement agencies to explore and experiment with novel intelligence applications and approaches for the emerging threat environment workspace should be explored. This emerging threat workspace needs to address the issue of armed conflict that no longer has much to do with formal conventional battlefields. Intelligence must focus more on cultural and social paradigms, not just military order of battle. The Center for Emerging Threats and Opportunities (CETO), created in 2000, will focus on exploring innovative ways to deal with nontraditional threats to national security. Working with military, public, and private agencies, the center will conduct research into operating force capabilities required by the Marine Corps and joint warfighters for small-scale operations and contingencies around the world.