skip navigation


Abstract Database

Register for Latest Research

Stay Informed
Register with NCJRS to receive NCJRS's biweekly e-newsletter JUSTINFO and additional periodic emails from NCJRS and the NCJRS federal sponsors that highlight the latest research published or sponsored by the Office of Justice Programs.

NCJRS Abstract

To download this abstract, check the box next to the NCJ number then click the "Back To Search Results" link. Then, click the "Download" button on the Search Results page. Also see the Obtain Documents page for direction on how to access resources online, via mail, through interlibrary loans, or in a local library.


NCJ Number: 193026 Find in a Library
Title: Secure Population Projections
Corporate Author: Children's Research Ctr
United States of America
Date Published: January 17, 2002
Page Count: 16
Sponsoring Agency: Arizona Dept of Juvenile Corrections
Phoeniz, AZ 85007
Children's Research Ctr
Madison, WI 53719
Sale Source: Arizona Dept of Juvenile Corrections
1624 West Adams Street
Phoeniz, AZ 85007
United States of America
Type: Report (Study/Research)
Format: Document
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: This report presents projections of the numbers of juveniles to be housed in secure facilities operated by the Arizona Department of Juvenile Corrections through fiscal year 2012, based on assumptions associated with future decisionmaking and population trends.
Abstract: The projections rested on assumptions about the future associated with future admissions and lengths of stay in secure facilities. The analysis assumed that current reported lengths of stay in regular secure care were representative of future periods of confinement pending revocation and parole reinforcement statuses. The study also assumed that the number of annual new commitments would increase in proportion to the increase in at-risk youths in Arizona and that the number of parole violators returning to pending status would remain largely unchanged in the future. Results indicated that the Arizona Department of Corrections secure population will increase by 3.9 percent over its secure population of 739 on December 18, 2001, to an average of 768 in fiscal year 2006, following projected declines in fiscal years 2003 and 2004. Factors that will produce this increase included the impact of court-ordered minimum lengths of stay, the increase in the juvenile population, the implementation of a structured decision making matrix for the review of parole violators, and four other factors. Figures
Main Term(s): Juvenile inmate statistics
Index Term(s): Arizona; Future trends; Juvenile justice planning; Prison population prediction; Secure juvenile units/facilities
To cite this abstract, use the following link:

*A link to the full-text document is provided whenever possible. For documents not available online, a link to the publisher's website is provided. Tell us how you use the NCJRS Library and Abstracts Database - send us your feedback.