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CRIME (FROM THE URBAN PREDICAMENT, 1976 BY WILLIAM GORHAM AND NATHAN GLAZER)

NCJ Number
46518
Author(s)
J Q WILSON; B BOLAND
Date Published
1976
Length
52 pages
Annotation
A STATISTICAL EVALUATION OF PREDATORY VICTIMIZATION BY URBAN CRIMINALS AND OF THE NATURE AND EFFECT OF CRIME-DEFENSE AND CRIME-PREVENTION MEASURES IS PRESENTED.
Abstract
FOR THE PURPOSE OF THIS ANALYSIS ONLY PREDATORY CRIME (I.E., CRIME AGAINST INNOCENT VICTIMS AND USUALLY FOR FINANCIAL GAIN) IS CONSIDERED. AMONG THE FRIGHTENING CRIMES, ROBBERY IS COMMON, AND IT OFTEN INVOLVES VIOLENCE. IN 1973, 382,680 ROBBERIES WERE REPORTED, TWO-THIRDS OF THEM IN CITIES WITH POPULATIONS OVER 250,000. THE MEASURES OF THE NUMBER OF ROBBERIES REFERRED TO IN THIS REPORT ARE TAKEN FROM HOUSEHOLD VICTIMIZATION STUDIES CARRIED OUT BY THE U.S. BUREAU OF THE CENSUS DURING LATE 1972, EARLY 1973, AND EARLY 1974 IN 26 CITIES. VICTIMIZATION RATES VARY GREATLY BY LOCATION, RACE, AGE, SEX, AND INCOME. IN GENERAL, BLACKS ARE ROBBED MORE OFTEN THAN WHITES, THE YOUNG MORE OFTEN THAN THE OLD, MALES MORE OFTEN THAN FEMALES, AND THE POOR MORE OFTEN THAN THE RICH. THERE ARE EXCEPTIONS: IN NEW YORK CITY WHITES EARNING OVER $25,000 A YEAR ARE JUST AS LIKELY TO BE ROBBED AS THOSE EARNING UNDER $3,000, AND NONWHITES IN THE UPPER INCOME BRACKETS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE ROBBED THAN THOSE IN THE LOWER. GENERALLY, PEOPLE LIVING IN THE SOUTH ARE LESS SUBJECT TO ROBBERY THAN THOSE IN THE NORTH. SELF-DEFENSE MEASURES SUCH AS RELOCATION AND TARGET-HARDENING ARE CRIMES EVASION TACTICS AND HAVE LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON CUMULATIVE CRIME FIGURES; BOTH MEASURES TEND ONLY TO SHIFT THE THREAT OF ROBBERY FROM ONE INDIVIDUAL TO ANOTHER WITH NO EFFECTIVE DECREASE IN THE NUMBER OF ROBBERIES. PUBLIC DEFENSE MEASURES ARE GENERALLY MORE EFFECTIVE. OF THESE, PREVENTION AND REHABILITATION SEEM THE LEAST EFFECTIVE IN TERMS OF AN OVERALL REDUCTION OF THE INCIDENCE OF ROBBERY. DISARMING CRIMINALS THROUGH GUN CONTROL IS ALSO SHOWN TO BE INEFFECTIVE; STUDIES SHOW THAT THERE IS AN EVEN GREATER CHANCE OF INJURY RESULTING FROM UNARMED ROBBERIES THAN ARMED VICTIMIZATION. THE DETERRENT EFFECT OF THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM AND A RETURN TO ENFORCED CRIMINAL INCAPACITATION ARE MORE PROMISING PREVENTION MEASURES. A GROWING BODY OF EVIDENCE SUGGESTS THAT, IN CRIMES COMMITTED FOR MATERIAL GAIN, OFFENDERS ARE RATIONAL AND TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE COSTS AND BENEFITS OF ALTERNATIVE COURSES OF ACTION; CONSISTENT ARREST AND CONVICTION PATTERNS ARE CAPABLE OF DETERRING THESE OFFENSES. A STATISTICAL EVALUATION OF THE IMPACT ON CRIME OF INCAPACITATION THROUGH IMPRISONMENT ALSO UNDERSCORES A POSITIVE TREND IN CRIME PREVENTION, AND THE REPORT CONCLUDES THAT A MORE EFFECTIVE AND CONSISTENT EFFORT AT ARREST AND CONVICTION COMBINED WITH EXPANDED USE OF THE PRISON SYSTEM AND LONGER SENTENCES WOULD RESULT IN A DECREASE IN CRIME. A COMPARISON OF THE NATIONAL OPINION RESEARCH CENTER AND THE NATIONAL CRIMES SURVEY CRIME RATE ESTIMATES IS INCLUDED IN AN APPENDIX, AND EXTENSIVE TABULAR DATA ARE PROVIDED. (KBL)

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