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US PREPARATION FOR FUTURE LOW-LEVEL CONFLICT

NCJ Number
46901
Author(s)
B JENKINS; G TANHAM; E WAINSTEIN; G SULLIVAN
Date Published
1977
Length
24 pages
Annotation
GLOBAL DIFFUSION OF POLITICAL AUTHORITY AND POWER IS LIKELY TO BRING ABOUT AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL CONFLICT AND CRISIS. CONSEQUENTLY, THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONTINGENCY PLANS AND CRISIS-MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES WILL BE NEEDED.
Abstract
ISSUES AND PROBLEMS INVOLVED IN PLANNING, MOBILIZING RESOURCES, AND MAINTAINING A READINESS AND WILLINGNESS TO ACT IN ANY NUMBER OF TYPES OF LOW-LEVEL CRISIS, INCLUDING INCREASINGLY SOPHISTICATED FORMS OF INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM, ARE FORMIDABLE. AT PRESENT THERE IS NO SINGLE ORGANIZATION WITH COMMAND CAPABILITY FOR MANAGING LOW-LEVEL CONFLICTS. ALTHOUGH THE CABINET COMMITTEE TO COMBAT TERRORISM IS RESPONSIBLE FOR COORDINATING U. S. POLICY, AND THE FEDERAL BUREAU OF INVESTIGATION IS RESPONSIBLE FOR COMBATING TERRORISM, WITH MILITARY ASSISTANCE IF NECESSARY, THE RESPONSIBILITY FOR RESPONDING TO SERIOUS CRISES IS NOT CLEARLY DEFINED. THUS, U.S. CONTINGENCY PLANNING IS INADEQUATE. IN GENERAL, DISCUSSANTS FELT THAT A SMALL PERMANENT AND HIGH-LEVEL ORGANIZATION IS NEEDED TO DEAL WITH LOW-LEVEL CONFLICTS, POSSIBLY IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MILITARY COMMAND. WHILE ALL BRANCHES OF THE ARMED FORCES HAVE UNITS CAPABLE OF CONDUCTING UNCONVENTIONAL WARFARE OPERATIONS, THERE IS NO SINGLE MILITARY UNIT WITH ALL THE REQUISITE MILITARY CAPABILITIES. FLEET MARINE FORCES DEPLOYED AROUND THE WORLD ARE SEEN AS THE NEEDED TYPE OF CAPABILITY WHICH COULD BE AUGMENTED BY THE FORWARD DEPLOYMENT OF ADDITIONAL SPECIALLY TRAINED FORCES. A CAPABILITY IS NEEDED FOR IDENTIFYING THE RANGE OF OPTIONS, GAMING OUTCOMES, ASSESSING OUTSIDE PERCEPTIONS, WORKING WITH ALLIES, AND TARGETING RELEVANT INTELLIGENCE. FLEXIBLE RESPONSE, WITH STRONG POLITICAL CONSTRAINTS IMPOSED ON OPERATIONS, WILL BE NEEDED. COMMUNICATIONS STRATEGIES, POSSIBLY SIMILAR TO WORLDWIDE CAPABILITIES OF NEWSGATHERING AGENCIES, WILL BE REQUIRED. THERE IS A NEED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MOBILE AND EASILY ASSEMBLED WEAPONRY AND THE PROVISION OF SOLUTIONS TO THE PROBLEMS OF INTELLIGENCE OPERATIONS, LONG-RANGE ANALYSIS, AND IDENTIFICATION OF PATTERNS AND POTENTIAL THREATS. PREPARATION FOR FUTURE LOW-LEVEL CONTINGENCIES WILL REQUIRE AN ASSESSMENT OF PUBLIC AND CONGRESSIONAL ATTITUDES AND SUPPORT FOR ACTIONS, PARTICULARLY FOR THOSE INVOLVING MILITARY DEPLOYMENTS. THE WORLDWIDE NATURE OF THE THREAT PLACES A PREMIUM ON ALLIED RELATIONSHIPS AND CAPABILITIES. QUESTIONS RELATING TO ARMS CONTROL AND NUCLEAR ACCESS REQUIRE RESOLUTION. UNDER INTERNATIONAL LAW, THERE EXISTS AMPLE LEGAL AUTHORITY FOR HUMANITARIAN INTERVENTION BASED ON THE STANDARD OF REASONABLENESS. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR PROBLEM RESOLUTION, MULTINATIONAL COOPERATION, AND CONTINGENCY AND OPERATIONS PLANNING ARE MADE. (JAP)