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Crime Rates and the Active Criminal (From Crime and Public Policy, P 11-29, 1983, James Q Wilson, ed. - See NCJ-91045)

NCJ Number
91046
Author(s)
J M Chaiken; M R Chaiken
Date Published
1983
Length
19 pages
Annotation
Since a small number of violent predators are responsible for a large volume of crime, the processes that initiate, interrupt, or terminate their careers are central to the future course of crime.
Abstract
Crime rates have remained fairly stable in the United States, although confusion over terminology and conflicts among different data sources have produced misleading impressions of crime rates. A geographic area's crime rates are correlated with four characteristics: urbanization, age structure of the population, racial composition of the population, and crime opportunities and control in the community. In addition, certain social and psychological factors appear to increase either the probability of individuals' committing specific types of offenses or the rates at which they commit offenses. Data on almost 2,200 inmates in California, Texas, and Michigan revealed that the most serious offenders were those who had committed three crimes: robbery, assault, and drug dealing. These violent predators typically also committed burglary, theft, and other property crimes. One-tenth of the violent predators committed over 135 robberies, 18 assaults, 516 burglaries, and 4,088 drug deals per year. Thus, factors that change the numbers of violent predators on the street will influence crime rates just as much or more than factors that change the total number of offenders. Crime rates of violent predators may have peaked, due to the stabilization of hard drug use and violence among juveniles along with the smaller population of juveniles. A possible counterinfluence is the incarceration of more juveniles who have committed lesser offenses, since incarceration may prove to be criminogenic for less serious types of offenders.