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NCJ Number: 113789 Find in a Library
Title: Revalidation of the Illinois Risk Assessment System
Author(s): C Baird; R Prestine
Corporate Author: South Carolina Office of the Governor
United States of America
Date Published: 1988
Page Count: 67
Sponsoring Agency: South Carolina Office of the Governor
Columbia, SC 29211
Type: Report (Study/Research)
Format: Document
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: A revalidation was conducted of the Illinois risk assessment instrument (IRAI) using data for a systematic, randomized sample of 1,338 cases admitted to probation in selected Illinois counties in 1985.
Abstract: Probation violations, arrests, and convictions were examined for a 24-month followup period. Results indicate that the IRAI provides a valid assessment of the risk of recidivism: high risk cases were nearly three times as likely to have major adjustment problems and twice as likely to have moderate problems than were low risk cases. The scale's utility is well-established: it is used in over 100 jurisdictions, its format is simple, it is easy to complete, and it contains only factors with demonstrated relationships to probation outcome. Results indicate that certain changes could enhance the IRAI's predictive capability. These changes would also simplify the scale somewhat and remove some of the subjectivity, thereby increasing both utility and reliability. The scale is not racially or sexually biased, although some minorities may score higher on some items such as employment due to social inequalities; and ethnic group differences on these items were no greater than differences found in scoring criminal history factors. Inter-rater reliability was less than adequate on a number of items, suggesting a need for additional staff training, item revision, or both. 33 tables, 21 footnotes, and 24 references.
Main Term(s): Probation outcome prediction
Index Term(s): Illinois; Recidivism prediction; Testing and measurement
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