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NCJ Number: 120171 Add to Shopping cart Find in a Library
Title: Prospective Test of a Criminal Career Model
Journal: Criminology  Volume:27  Issue:2  Dated:(May 1989)  Pages:373-388
Author(s): A Barnett; A Blumstein; D Farrington
Date Published: 1989
Page Count: 16
Sponsoring Agency: National Institute of Justice (NIJ)
Washington, DC 20531
US Dept of Justice NIJ Pub
Washington, DC 20531
Grant Number: 86-IJ-CX-0070
Type: Research (Theoretical)
Format: Article
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: The authors, in an earlier article published in 1987, formulated a model that described the criminal careers of multiple offenders in a cohort of London males.
Abstract: They had been studied from their 10th to the 25th birthdays. Two subpopulations were used in that model, offenders were denoted as "frequents" and "occasionals". Each was characterized by a constant annual conviction rate and a constant probability of terminating the criminal career following a conviction. The original model was based on 82 men with two or more convictions for offenses. The new data was accumulated from their 25th to their 30th birthdays. This article describes the results of a prospective and predictive test of the model. The number of recidivists, the degree of recidivism risk, the total number of recidivist convictions, and the time intervals between recidivist convictions were all successfully predicted by the original model. Some distortions were caused by offenders who had terminated their criminal careers for long periods, but then reactivated them. 6 notes, 5 tables, 1 figure, 6 references. (Author abstract modified)
Main Term(s): Models
Index Term(s): Criminal career patterns; Recidivism prediction
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