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NCJRS Abstract

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NCJ Number: 120431 Find in a Library
Title: Computer Forecasting Model for Predicting Requirements for Beds in Secure Custody Juvenile Corrections Institutions
Author(s): J Pasmore; J Walker
Corporate Author: Australian Institute of Criminology
Date Published: 1989
Page Count: 74
Sponsoring Agency: Australian Institute of Criminology
Canberra ACT, 2601, Australia
Publication Number: ISBN 0-642-14508-3
Sale Source: Australian Institute of Criminology
GPO Box 2944
Canberra ACT, 2601,
Document: PDF
Type: Report (Technical)
Language: English
Country: Australia
Annotation: A computer model was developed to forecast the numbers of juveniles likely to be held in secure detention by the year 2000, given anticipated population and governmental policy changes.
Abstract: Forecasting is needed to help juvenile corrections personnel provide services that are appropriately designed and targeted to meet present and future needs of detainees. The Juvenile Institution Forecasting (JIF) model is the main focus of this report. It covers sources of data, likely difficulties in assembling data, methods of scenario development, among other factors. The model's flexibility accommodates "what if" questions and changing trends, and provides useful and timely advice to planners and policymakers. Appendixes include a Fortran listing of the JIF model, definitions of key variables, tabular examples of input data, and a sample scenario computer run using artificially generated data. Tables, 5 figures.
Main Term(s): Juvenile correctional population projection
Index Term(s): Australia; Juvenile correctional planning; Juvenile Corrections/Detention trends; Juvenile delinquents; Juvenile offenders
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