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NCJ Number: 120499 Find in a Library
Title: Predicting Police Force Attrition, Promotion, and Demographic Change: A Computerized Simulation Model
Journal: Canadian Police College Journal  Volume:13  Issue:3  Dated:(1989)  Pages:87-127
Author(s): J H McGinnis
Date Published: 1989
Page Count: 41
Type: Statistics
Format: Article
Language: English; French
Country: Canada
Annotation: A computerized simulation model analyzing human resource demographics within the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) projects attrition, promotions, and recruitment over the next eight-year period and demonstrates forthcoming changes in the age and length of service groupings of members at each rank level.
Abstract: The seven basic factors that determine the opportunity structure of an organization are the rank structure, promotional policy, retirement policy, growth, force demographics, attrition, and personnel policy changes. The Canadian Police College has contracted for the development of a simulation model called SIMERH which requires certain data for input, including starting strength distribution, departure rates, promotion transfer matrix, promotion length of stay preference, growth/decline, and policy changes. After processing the inputs, SIMERH projects steadily increasing attrition due to collective aging; increasing numbers of promotions but not enough to continue a nearly universal promotion policy; lower net promotional outcomes for those who have been in service between 8 and 18 years; an increase in the age of constables and an increase in the age variability of constables; and a collectively older force. 35 tables, 5 references.
Main Term(s): Personnel promotion; Police career development
Index Term(s): Canada; Computer simulation; Police staff recruitment; Royal Canadian Mounted Police
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