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NCJ Number: 126179 Find in a Library
Title: Parole Decision-Making in Canada: Research Toward Decision Guidelines
Author(s): J Nuffield
Corporate Author: Canada Solicitor General
Research Division
Date Published: 1982
Page Count: 104
Sponsoring Agency: Canada Ministry of Supply and Services
Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0S5, Canada
Canada Solicitor General
Ottawa, Ontario K1A OP8, Canada
Publication Number: ISBN 0-662-12114-7
Sale Source: Canada Ministry of Supply and Services
123 Slater Street
Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0S5,
Document: PDF
Type: Research (Applied/Empirical)
Language: English
Country: Canada
Annotation: This study, designed and implemented by the National Parole Board and Solicitor General of Canada between 1975 and 1977, used a sample of 2,500 full-parole decisions in order to determine factors that were most strongly correlated to the decision outcome. The results of analysis were used to create a model of National Parole Board decision-making.
Abstract: The findings indicate that offender characteristics, related to the probability that the offender would be re-arrested after release, was more significantly correlated to parole decisions than the seriousness of the offense itself. Three statistical techniques were used to predict recidivism within three years of release. The simple summation method was most effective in distinguishing between high and low risk inmates. This method was able to identify inmates unlikely to be rearrested for violent offenses, although it was less capable in identifying high risk inmates. The report recommends that guidelines be adopted by the National Parole Board in order to incorporate this predictive capability. Offenders classified as good statistical risks would be granted an operating presumption favoring full parole release at their initial date of eligibility while poor risk inmates would move into a program of graduated conditional releases. 16 tables, 6 figures, and 4 appendixes
Main Term(s): Probation or parole decisionmaking; Recidivism prediction
Index Term(s): Canada; Offense characteristics; Parole outcome prediction
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