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NCJ Number: 126375 Add to Shopping cart Find in a Library
Title: Age Structure and Crime Rates: A Parting of Ways
Author(s): T B Marvell; C E Moody Jr
Corporate Author: Justec Research
United States of America
Date Published: Unknown
Page Count: 76
Sponsoring Agency: Justec Research
Williamsburg, VA 23185
National Institute of Justice (NIJ)
Washington, DC 20531
US Dept of Justice NIJ Pub
Washington, DC 20531
Grant Number: 88-IJ-CX-0045
Document: PDF
Dataset: DATASET 1
Type: Survey
Format: Document
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: The reasons for the trend of crime rates holding steady or rising, even though the age groups with the highest arrest rates continuing to shrink, are discussed.
Abstract: The age/crime relationship is explored by applying a time series-cross section model, using data from 1971-1988 for most states. The analysis includes year effects which indicate that yet unidentified nation wide factors are very important. Age structure was found to affect all seven types of index crime; although the results for murder, assault, and vehicle theft are only marginally significant. The high impact age groups are roughly similar to the high arrest groups, but they tend to be somewhat older and less concentrated in the peak years. Differences are most noticeable for vehicle theft. The results are interpreted as supporting the crime-opportunity theory and any attempts to estimate the impact of age structure must incorporate the impact of victims' age structure. This problem, along with the importance of year effects, lead to the conclusion that it is not useful to estimate the portion of crime trends attributable to age structure and that forecasts based on age structure trends are unlikely to be accurate. 11 tables and 120 references (Author abstract modified)
Main Term(s): Age group comparisons; Crime Rate
Index Term(s): Crime typologies; Juvenile offender physical characteristics; Offender physical characteristics
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