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NCJ Number: 126663 Add to Shopping cart Find in a Library
Title: Termination Rate of Adult Criminal Careers
Author(s): A Blumstein; J Cohen; A Golub
Date Published: 1989
Page Count: 114
Sponsoring Agency: National Institute of Justice (NIJ)
Washington, DC 20531
National Institute of Justice/
Rockville, MD 20849
NCJRS Photocopy Services
Rockville, MD 20849-6000
US Dept of Justice NIJ Pub
Washington, DC 20531
Grant Number: 86-IJ-CX-0047
Sale Source: National Institute of Justice/
NCJRS paper reproduction
Box 6000, Dept F
Rockville, MD 20849
United States of America

NCJRS Photocopy Services
Box 6000
Rockville, MD 20849-6000
United States of America
Document: PDF
Dataset: DATASET 1
Type: Survey
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: The paper presents the results of a study of adult arrest histories of male criminal offenders arrested in the Detroit SMSA between January 1974 and December 1977 to determine the rate at which offenders terminate criminal activity and how this rate varies based on offenders' prior criminal record.
Abstract: The research used the criminal career approach which focuses on the longitudinal analysis of individual offenders' criminal activity plus the termination rate, which is defined as the probability an offender terminates criminal activity in a given year. The study then analyzed how the termination rate varied across offender attributes. The arrestees were divided into demographic and prior criminal record groups. Average termination rates were then estimated, using maximum likelihood techniques, for each group based on criminal activity after the particular arrest timeframe. Clusters of offender groups with both similar attributes and similar termination rates were identified. The analysis for this particular data pool yielded six clusters with race-specific and age-specific findings. In general, termination rates decrease as the number of prior arrests increase for white, 17-29 year-old offenders; black and white, 30-39 year-old offenders have a lower termination rate than offenders who are 17-29 or over 40 years old at the time of arrest. Several areas of further research and applications of these results are discussed. The paper includes eight appendixes that specifically deal with the data and refinements in it. 48 footnotes, 13 figures, 13 tables, and 31 references (Author abstract modified)
Main Term(s): Criminal career patterns
Index Term(s): Juvenile to adult criminal careers; Michigan; Recidivism causes; Recidivism statistics
Note: Draft
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