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NCJRS Abstract

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NCJ Number: 134285 Find in a Library
Title: Social Indicators and Crime Rate Forecasting
Journal: Social Indicators Research  Volume:22  Dated:(1990)  Pages:83-96
Author(s): A Rattner
Date Published: 1990
Page Count: 14
Type: Survey
Format: Article
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: Macrodynamic social indicators are used in a time series analysis of three crime categories: homicide; property; and robbery offenses in Israel.
Abstract: Results confirm earlier findings on the relationship between unemployment and violent crime and clearly demonstrate that rate of homicide tends to increase as rates of unemployment go up. Findings also exhibit a positive relationship between density of population and the two categories of property crime: breaking and entering and robbery offenses. Another variable that has demonstrated a positive effect on the rate of property offenses is the age structure. The typical shape of the age distribution of criminal behavior is said to show a peak in the mid to late teens and declines thereafter. This is particularly so with regard to property offenses. When the categories of homicide and robbery are examined, findings show that the existence of a complex social learning and diffusion process has an effect on the transmission and persistence of certain criminal behaviors. 2 tables, 1 note, and bibliography
Main Term(s): Crime prediction; Demographic analysis of crime
Index Term(s): Crime in foreign countries; Homicide trends; Israel; Property crime statistics; Robbery
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