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NCJ Number: 134809 Find in a Library
Title: Testing the Relationship Between Unemployment and Crime: A Methodological Comment and Empirical Analysis Using Time Series Data From England and Wales
Journal: Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency  Volume:28  Issue:4  Dated:(November 1991)  Pages:400-417
Author(s): C Hale; D Sabbagh
Date Published: 1991
Page Count: 18
Type: Test/Measurement
Format: Article
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: The methodological approach of Cantor and Land (1985) in determining the unemployment and crime relationship is critiqued regarding statistical validity.
Abstract: The equations Cantor and Land estimated are shown to be statistically misspecified within their terms of reference. In their model, Cantor and Land explored various specifications of linear and log-linear relationships between detrended annual U.S. time series (1946-1982) for each of seven FBI index crimes and similar annual series of the levels and first differences of the unemployment rate. The claim is based on the logic of recent work in linear time-series/econometric methodology, particularly the conintegration and error connection models. Based on the assumption that the time series consisting of levels of the variables are nonstationary and those consisting of the first differences are stationary, and that the levels series are I, the specification of an I series, the unemployment rate (as regressor in a model of the first-differences) or I, crime rate series would be a misspecification, and, consequently, the results become invalid. In addition, the attempt to overcome the difficulties of specifying and estimating a full structural model by concentrating on the reduced form is viewed as limited because other possible exogenous variables are ignored. 3 tables and 33 references
Main Term(s): Employment-crime relationships
Index Term(s): England; Time series; Unemployment; Wales
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