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NCJRS Abstract

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NCJ Number: 135637 Add to Shopping cart Find in a Library
Title: Improving Predictions of Offender Recidivism and Patterns of Offender Crime: Final Report
Author(s): C Chung; P Schmidt; A Witte
Corporate Author: National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
United States of America
Date Published: Unknown
Page Count: 108
Sponsoring Agency: National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Cambridge, MA 02138-5398
National Institute of Justice (NIJ)
Washington, DC 20531
National Institute of Justice/
Rockville, MD 20849
NCJRS Photocopy Services
Rockville, MD 20849-6000
US Dept of Justice NIJ Pub
Washington, DC 20531
Grant Number: 89-IJ-CX-0010
Sale Source: National Institute of Justice/
NCJRS paper reproduction
Box 6000, Dept F
Rockville, MD 20849
United States of America

NCJRS Photocopy Services
Box 6000
Rockville, MD 20849-6000
United States of America
Document: PDF
Type: Report (Study/Research)
Format: Document
Language: English
Country: United States of America
Annotation: This report presents results from tests of the abilities of a proportional hazards model and parametric (lognormal) models to improve predictions of offender recidivism and patterns of offender crime.
Abstract: This work is an extension of the analyses performed under the authors' previous grant and reported in "Predicting Recidivism Using Survival Models" (Schmidt and Witte, 1989). The current research investigated the extent to which the previous models of Schmidt and Witte could be improved by greater attention to the ways in which explanatory variables are entered into the models. These models included proportional hazards models and also parametric models based on the lognormal distribution. The explanatory models did provide a more complete profile of the way in which explanatory variables affect recidivism. In particular, age and number of prior incarcerations were found to have strong nonlinear effects that the previous models did not reveal. The increase in explanatory power was not matched by a commensurate increase in the quality of out-of-sample predictions. Predictions for the entire 1978 and 1980 validation samples were improved only slightly by using expanded models. Expanded specifications resulted in greater improvements in predictive ability for individuals instead of for groups. 61 tables
Main Term(s): Recidivism prediction
Index Term(s): Crime prediction; Models
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